NFL EDGE

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NFL Edge prices out the best odds across six major sportsbooks, strips out the vig, and compares each line to the model's true probability on every game. It finds where the market is underpricing a side and ranks the board by expected value so you can bet with an edge instead of a hunch.

Last updated
2:03:36 AM

3 Best Bets

Total · DraftKings

Under 43.5

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs · Tue, Sep 15, 12:15 AM

-112
Confidence 94
Model probability69.6%
Book implied52.8%
No-vig market50.4%
Model edge+19.1%
Fair odds-229 (+36.8)
Expected value+31.7%
Market hold4.8%
Data quality99/100
Recommended stake 1.00 units
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Leans

Small positive expectation — smaller stake or pass.

  • DEN +2.5
    DEN @ KC · Tue, Sep 15, 12:15 AM
    -110+9.9%
  • DEN MLValue dog
    DEN @ KC · Tue, Sep 15, 12:15 AM
    +114+6.2%

Our track record

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Power ratings

Opponent-adjusted team strength measured in points versus an average NFL team. Updated weekly from every completed game, with older results faded as the current season shapes the true ability of each roster.

1Baltimore Ravens logoBAL+7.5
2Buffalo Bills logoBUF+4.4
3San Francisco 49ers logoSF+4.4
4Chicago Bears logoCHI+4.1
5Los Angeles Rams logoLAR+3.8
6Denver Broncos logoDEN+3.7
7Cincinnati Bengals logoCIN+3.5
8New York Giants logoNYG+3.2
9Jacksonville Jaguars logoJAX+2.9
10Dallas Cowboys logoDAL+2.3
11Seattle Seahawks logoSEA+1.4
12Detroit Lions logoDET+1.0
13NFC+0.6
14Pittsburgh Steelers logoPIT+0.6
15Minnesota Vikings logoMIN+0.2
16Green Bay Packers logoGB-0.2
17AFC-0.6
18Atlanta Falcons logoATL-0.8
19Kansas City Chiefs logoKC-0.8
20Tampa Bay Buccaneers logoTB-1.2
21New England Patriots logoNE-1.3
22Arizona Cardinals logoARI-1.5
23Carolina Panthers logoCAR-1.6
24New York Jets logoNYJ-1.7
25Los Angeles Chargers logoLAC-1.8
26Houston Texans logoHOU-2.0
27Philadelphia Eagles logoPHI-2.2
28New Orleans Saints logoNO-2.4
29Tennessee Titans logoTEN-3.2
30Las Vegas Raiders logoLV-3.3
31Washington Commanders logoWSH-3.6
32Cleveland Browns logoCLE-4.0
33Indianapolis Colts logoIND-4.8
34Miami Dolphins logoMIA-6.7

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